There could be 3,000 more Marines in uniform next year as Congress weighs boosting the size of the service — but one of the Corps' top leaders said it still might not be enough. just as the Corps ends a forced post-war drawdown that required it to shed 20,000 leathernecks from its ranks.
House lawmakers are calling for the Marine Corps to be increased to 185,000 leathernecks. But Assistant Commandant Gen. John Paxton said Monday that in order to meet all of its missions, the Corps needs at least 186,800 Marines.
That was the number of Marines the service needed in 2011, before across-the-board spending cuts known as sequestration went into effect.
Back in 2011, the Marine Corps determined it needed a total of 186,600 Marines to meet all of its missions, but now the service may need even more than that, according to Assistant Commandant Gen. John Paxton.
House lawmakers are calling for the Corps to have 3,000 more Marines than planned after the drawdown. Last Thursday, however, the Senate unveiled its version in line with the President's plan to keep a smaller force, setting the stage for a congressional showdown over whether the military has been slashed too far.
"That was before Ukraine, before Syria, before South China Sea, before WikiLeaks," Paxton said told reporters on Monday at the annual Sea-Air-Space exposition held outside of Washington, D.C. "To us, 186,800 is about the floor so the number may [need to] be north of there."
Having more Marines would allow the service Corps to retain its conventional punch while also specializing in new certain skill sets to meet Russia's and China’s advances in cyber and electronic warfare, Paxton added.said.
Still, Commandant Gen. Robert Neller isn't confident he'll get 185,000 Marines, let alone get the extra 1,800 Marines his deputy is calling for. The issue is gearing up to end in a congressional showdown as the Senate's plan falls in line with the current planned end strength of 182,000 Marines in 2017.
Here's a look at what's at stake.
'The world has changed'
All of the military services have faced steep budget cuts in recent years, but Marines' operational deployment tempo has yet to slow.
U.S. troops have been increasingly tapped to respond to aggressive acts by Russia, the rise of the Islamic State group and a more assertive China. Those issues weren't high on many people's minds when the military personnel drawdowns kicked off.
"The world has changed," said noted Mark Cancian, a retired Marine officer and senior international security adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Arguably the world is a more dangerous place than had been envisioned, and this feeds into the belief that forces at least have to stop getting smaller and actually start getting larger." If the House gets its way, here’s what an additional 3,000 Marines would mean.
Marines with the Bulgaria-based Combined Arms Company fire an M1A1 Abrams tank during a field training exercise in Eastern Europe. The new Marine unit was stood up last year to assure allies in the region concerned about Russian aggression.
Photo Credit: Lance Cpl. Melanye Martinez/Marine Corps
In 2015, Marines carried out approximately 100 land operations, 20 amphibious missions, 140 theater security cooperation events and 160 major exercises, Commandant Gen. Robert Neller noted in a March briefing to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
That type of operational tempo has left the force pinched in certain areas, especially as budgets continue to shrink.
New threats Better capabilities
While Congress might expect the Marine Corps to buy back another infantry battalion or two, Cancian said it's more likely the service would have other ideas. as the service strives to meet the "new normal."
Cyber Marines, drone operators and other high-tech specialties will be needed to meet the new threats posed by countries like Russia and China, he said noted.
Marines with 2nd Air Naval Gunfire Liaison Company conduct a mission on a simulation center called Virtual Battlespace 3. As missions get more technical and complicated, the Marine Corps may need additional cyber warriors.
Photo Credit: Cpl. Justin Updegraff/Marine Corps
More Marines "would help the Corps build these new kinds of capabilities without having to cut the old capabilities, because that is a hard trade-off," Cancian said. "... It might help them fill in some of the shortages in the current structure."
Improving Preserving readiness — especially in the aviation community — would likely be another priority. is a key area for this, a point the Commandant has repeatedly emphasized.Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee sounded the alarms about a military readiness crisis earlier this month in a May 3 press release following reports that the Marine Corps is experiencing trouble with its aviation fleet.
As a result, the lawmakers proposed "increasing Marine Corps end strength by 3,000 Marines to help address shortfalls in critical skill sets and fully funding the military pay raise to help incentivize Marines to stay in the Corps," according to a release.
Curbing long deployments
Back in 2011, the Marine Corps determined it needed a total of 186,600 Marines to meet all of its missions, but now the service may need even more than that, according to Assistant Commandant Gen. John Paxton.
"That was before Ukraine, before Syria, before South China Sea, before Wikileaks," he told reporters on Monday at the annual Sea-Air Space expo held outside of Washington, D.C. "To us, 186,600 is about the floor so the number may be north of there."
Having more Marines would allow the Corps to retain its conventional punch while also specializing in certain skill sets to meet Russia and China's advances in cyber and electronic warfare, Paxton said.
About 2,300 West Coast-based Marines recently arrived in the Middle East for a nine-month deployment. Members of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit's Task Force Spartan also remained behind in Iraq recently as the rest of their unit returned home. They could be there until August, which would leave them deployed for about 10 months.
Dakota Wood, a retired Marine Corps officer and senior research fellow at the for Defense Programs at the Heritage Foundation, said Marines should expect to take on more work if the service's end strength remains at 182,000.
This presents an issue if tasks remain what they are or increase, according to Dakota Wood, a retired Marine Corps officer and senior research fellow for Defense Programs at the Heritage Foundation.The current reality, however, is that the Corps has to do a lot more with less: the planned end strength for 2016 is 182,000 Marines.
"Unless workload decreases commensurate with the size of the force, the Marines who remain in a smaller Corps have no option but to shoulder longer days and more deployments," he said.
For example, the Marines' current crisis response task force to central command was extended to a nine month deployment versus six months for previous rotations.
Deployments stretching beyond the typical six months could be the new norm not only for planned missions, but also as Marines respond to unexpected This also doesn’t include any additional crises America’s 911 force might have to respond to, Wood added. Since natural disasters or other threats can pop up unexpectedly, it's nearly impossible to plan for them or predict where they'll take place, he said, which poses challenges for a force already stretched thin.
"These situations can occur anywhere in the world so it is impossible to predict one place, or situation, or threat actor over another," he said.
The expense
Adding thousands more 3,000 Marines comes with a price tag, and how. How the military will foot that bill is still up for debate.
The House's plan, which would shift involving shifting $18 billion in funds from the current overseas operations budget, - is a financial gamble. It's unclear how the government would pay for increases past next April budget would run out.
The costs associated with any kind of plus-up would of the proposed larger force also depend on what kind of Marines would be added, said Col. William Tosick, deputy director of Manpower Policy.
Adding more junior Marines through the typical accession process is relatively simple, he said. said Col. William Tosick, deputy director of Manpower Policy. The Marine Corps would simply recruit and train more new leathernecks.
But adding more seasoned noncommissioned officers, senior NCOs or officers is more complex and expensive, he said. If the service needs to retain its most-experienced Marines, it might require more money for re-enlistment bonuses. as the Marine Corps would need to place a complicated and expensive, requiring a greater emphasis on retention — and that could require more money for and possibly increased incentives, he said.
"It takes time to recruit, train, promote and assign Marines to new structures — especially with aviation and cyber-related units," Tosick said.
Lance Cpl. Jessica Kerr, a member of Marine Tactical Electronic Warfare Squadron 2, conducts maintenance on an EA-6B Prowler. Training Marines to work in fields like aviation maintenance or cyber requires an investment.
Photo Credit: Cpl. Suzanne Dickson/Marine Corps
Adding more Marines would also come as the Corps has a harder time filling these kinds of jobs, especially with first-term re-enlistments on the decline.
If the proposal were to go through both chambers, there's a strong possibility President Obama would veto it, as he did last year's $38 billion add-on for overseas contingency operations, Cancian said.
"You have this larger problem which is this may all be irrelevant," he said.
For now, Neller said he's preparing to make do with the size of the Marine Corps as it stands today. however, the Corps is preparing to hold the line with the Marines it has, the Commandant said.
"The real thing is: OK, how do we transition this force?" he said Monday at the Sea-Air-Space expo. "I'm not assuming that we're going to get the funding to get any more people even though there's actions in the legislation to do that."
Senior Reporter Jeff Schogol contributed to this report.
Matthew L. Schehl covers training and education, recruiting, West Coast Marines, MARSOC, and operations in Europe, Africa and the Middle East for Marine Corps Times. He can be reached at mschehl@marinecorpstimes.com.
